Housing Market Expansion Expected Through 2017

By Ryan Dosen

 

The real estate market should continue its expansion at least through 2017. This is the latest bit of good news from the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. Though “less bullish” than its last forecast in April, ULI’s most recent three-year economic forecast calls for “healthy and fairly steady” real estate market growth.

Urban Land Institute’s Survey

ULI is an independent global nonprofit with a mission “to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide.” ULI has more than 36,000 members worldwide, “representing the entire spectrum of the land use and development disciplines.” To determine its three-year forecast for the real estate market, ULI polled real estate economists and analysts from 36 of the country’s leading real estate investment, advisory, and research firms.

William Maher, ULI leader and director of North American strategy for LaSalle Investment Management in Baltimore, says that “the latest Consensus Forecast has picked up on recent growth concerns and stock market corrections around the world.” However, despite the fact that “global economies and capital markets are increasingly inter-related,” Maher says that “the US economy and real estate markets are in much better shape than most other countries.” Maher observes that “the vast majority of indicators in the forecast indicate favorable economic and capital markets in the U.S., as well as moderately strong real estate fundamentals and investment returns.” Therefore, ULI is calling for continued expansion in the American housing market for at least the next three years.

In keeping with its call for housing market expansion, ULI’s Consensus Forecast “predicts that single-family housing starts will increase to 745,000 in 2015, 842,000 in 2016, and 900,000 in 2017.” Home prices are also predicted to continue their rise, but with gains moderating over the next few years. Prices are expected to rise 5 percent in 2015, 4.3 percent in 2016, and 3.9 percent in 2017.

 

Promising Local Numbers

As has been reported many times in this column, our local real estate market continues to show significant year-over-year improvement. Suburban West Realtors Association reports that year-over-year home settlements are up 15.2 percent in Chester County. Suburban West also reports that median Chester County home prices, hovering below $300,000 last September, jumped 6.1 percent to around $315,000 in September 2015.

Between stock market corrections at home and widespread instability abroad, the experts at ULI have admittedly had to temper expectations for the near-term real estate market. However, the consensus seems to be that the US economy and real estate market are in a good position globally, and poised for continued improvement.  We’ve seen significant market improvement locally, and despite the existence of some potentially problematic external forces, there are even more positive signs and reasons for believing in the continued recovery and growth of our real estate market.

 

– Ryan Dosen manages The Wayne Megill Real Estate Team of Keller Williams – Brandywine Valley in West Chester, PA. Contact Ryan Dosen to inquire about buyer or seller representation or to learn more about a career in real estate by emailing ryan@waynemegillteam.com or calling 610-399-0338.

This article was published by 21st Century Media and the Daily Local News (West Chester, PA). To read this article on the the newspaper’s site, please visit the Daily Local News.

To view all of Ryan Dosen’s 21st Century Media real estate columns, visit http://www.dailylocal.com/search?text=dosen.