Autonomous Vehicles and the Impact on Real Estate

By Ryan Dosen

 

Most people don’t know it, but autonomous vehicles will start to be widely used in just a few years. These driverless vehicles will cost less money to operate, result in fewer accidents, and may affect home purchasing decisions as commutes become less painful. The impact on real estate will be gradual, but it will likely be positive for homeowners in Chester and Delaware County.

 

The Driverless Revolution

“The majority of people I talk to have no idea they’re coming so soon.” This is the latest regarding driverless vehicles from Lauren Isaac, Manager of Transportation Sustainability at engineering and planning firm Parsons Brinkerhoff. Based upon what Isaac and other experts foresee, the rollout of self-driving vehicles will occur gradually, probably over the next 15 years or so.

Isaac, who recently spoke on the topic at the National Shared Mobility Summit in Chicago, believes that the revolution will start as freight hauling companies make the move to reduce the costs, inefficiencies, and liabilities associated with human drivers. Jonathan Walker of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a nonprofit research and educational foundation focused on fostering “efficient and sustainable use of resources,” also spoke at the Summit. Walker sees “robo-taxis” going main stream very soon. He says that “in three years we’re going to see some kind of automated taxi service, probably in the Bay Area, maybe in Austin.”

Walker and Greg Rucks of RMI wrote an article earlier this year entitled “5 Steps to an Urban Transportation Revolution.” In it, Walker and Rucks say that “a big part of the problem is our cars and how we use them.” They say that “today’s vehicles are overdesigned, underused, underloaded, inefficient, polluting and—thanks to the drivers behind the wheel—dangerous.” Walker and Rucks envision a future transportation system that will involve mass usage of shared “electrified, autonomous, lightweight, service-based vehicles.”

Drastically different from today’s one-person-one-car society, the Walker and Rucks version may take some time to gain traction. However, the booming popularity of services such as Uber would tend to support Walker and Rucks’ theory on the transportation revolution. People are already sharing their vehicles more and more. Imagine if you had an autonomous vehicle that could be taxiing people around town and paying for itself while you are at work.

Time Frames for the Autonomous Vehicles

According to Isaac’s blog, “just about every car maker and technology developer is estimating to have driverless technology available to the public in the 2020-2025 timeframe.” According to Isaac, Ford CEO Mark Fields estimated that fully autonomous vehicles will be available on the market within 5 years. Google’s Sergy Brin has said that his company plans to have driverless cars on the market no later than 2018. Tesla CEO Elon Musk says that “five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination.”

What Autonomous Vehicles Mean for Real Estate

The implications of the coming autonomous vehicle revolution are wide-ranging and staggering. Walker and Rucks estimate that we spend 38 extra hours commuting each year because roads are clogged due to today’s highly inefficient and wasteful everybody-has-to-have-their-own-car mentality. In addition to allowing us to reclaim 38 commute hours each year, our self-driving vehicles will also enable us to maximize our remaining commute hours, not just preserve our own existence during the drive.

With commutes being far less painful, perhaps more people will choose to move out of the big cities and into the suburbs. Back in February this column discussed the continuing big city exodus, “with more people seeking space and privacy in this increasingly interconnected and social media driven world.” Autonomous vehicles will make this suburban transition even easier, as people become freed up during their commutes to catch up on work, sleep, or anything else that may require their attention. In a world with autonomous vehicles and widespread access to high-speed wireless Internet, many of us could, in theory, literally start our work day as soon as we start our engines. The impact on real estate will be slow and gradual, but the direction is clear, and the direction is a good one for homeowners in the Philadelphia suburbs.

 

– Ryan Dosen manages The Wayne Megill Real Estate Team of Keller Williams – Brandywine Valley in West Chester, PA. Contact Ryan Dosen to inquire about buyer or seller representation or to learn more about a career in real estate by emailing ryan@waynemegillteam.com or calling 610-399-0338.

This article was published by 21st Century Media and the Daily Local News (West Chester, PA). To read this article on the the newspaper’s site, please visit the Daily Local News.

Check out Ryan Dosen’s other 21st Century Media real estate columns.